1. Charlie Says:
   August 20th, 2009 at 9:10 am

   And the Massachusetts Plan is just getting started. I like to think of Government plans like diesel engines, sometimes they take awhile to warm up, but from then on you can always count on them to run up the public debt.

   Since it is a state program, I don’t think that the Massachusetts will threaten the frightening expenditure growth of Medicare and Medicaid, but if some of the current plans in Congress get passed, which resemble the Mass. Plan (exchange, individual mandate, guaranteed access, mandates), then we are in for a wild ride.

2. Devon Herrick Says:
   August 20th, 2009 at 3:46 pm

   I noticed one interesting point to this analysis. These are programs for which the government has little control over demand. Yet it has estimating a cost far into the future. A case in point is the Hospital Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) fund. The DSH fund is essentially throwing money at hospitals for providing charity care. Hospitals have little incentive to vet which patients are truly needy, and collect from those that aren’t needy when the government is willing to spend billions on hospitals that treat indigent patients.

3. Ken Says:
   August 20th, 2009 at 6:10 pm

   Fascinating chart.

4. Learn How to Make Money Always Trading in the Stock Market | #1 Tade Show Display Says:
   August 20th, 2009 at 6:33 pm

   [...] Expenditures for Health Programs Always Outpace Early Estimates … [...]

5. Health Care Costs Often Exceed Expectations « Free Market Mojo Says:
   August 21st, 2009 at 12:19 pm

   [...] HT: John Goodman’s Health Policy Blog [...]

6. $1 Trillion = $10 Trillion | wonderlandjack.com Says:
   August 21st, 2009 at 12:43 pm

   [...] a graph from John Goodman’s Health Policy BLOG that shows how severe the underestimates in regards to health-care actually have been (click to [...]

7. russ Says:
   August 21st, 2009 at 4:00 pm

   It just isn’t in health care the federal government screws up estimates on….

   Consider this Cato commentary from five years ago by Jenifer Zeigler…

   $9 Trillion Didn’t End Poverty — What to Do?

8. No Runny Eggs » Blog Archive » We’ve Only Just Begun Says:
   August 24th, 2009 at 5:52 am

   [...] I also say “at least” because there is historical evidence that the first year of all major government health programs have been significantly underestimated. Take a look at this graph from John Goodman’s Health Policy Blog: [...]

9. Instapundit » Blog Archive » THE OBAMACARE DEFICIT BLOWOUT: “The press corps has noticed the Congressional Budget Office’s est… Says:
   August 25th, 2009 at 7:29 am

   [...] more, judging by the experience with Medicare and other programs, actual spending will be much higher than even these [...]

10. pat Says:
    August 25th, 2009 at 8:04 am

    Are these the projected and actual costs of the first full year of the program? Or are the projections/actuals some years in the future?

11. Maggie's Farm Says:
    August 25th, 2009 at 9:12 am

    Bruce’s Two-Bits…

    A good time to be a jihadist “Obama has already gone a long way towards ensuring that interrogators cannot use any technique that might reasonably be expected to extract information from hardened terrorists.”
    The CIA Report: What Does It Say?

    The …

12. Projected Health Care Costs vs Actual « Democratic Thinker Says:
    September 11th, 2009 at 9:20 pm

    [...] | Expenditures for Health Programs Always Outpace Early Estimates Aug 20, 2009 by Devon Herrick Government has a poor record of predicting the cost of health [...]

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